Pandemic daily update, 2 November 2022
Vaccine vs. Pathogen Progress
The advances in vaccinology preceding the pandemic laid the foundation for the hyper-accelerated Covid vaccine success (10 months from sequencing to clinically validated vaccines, and made at scale). But now we are seeing many other pathogens which after a long tunnel are beginning to show light, particularly this week’s successful RSV results. Recall this pathogen was identified in 1956, so like malaria (dating back to 1880) and many other infectious diseases, it has taken many decades to get to positive clinical trials. Here, I’ve adapted Max Roser’s great graph (and the Our World In Data Team) to include RSV and the other vaccine programs that look very promising, as denoted by check marks.
And Now There Are 5 [Studies of the Bivalent BA.5 Booster in People]
Two more lab preprint studies of the BA.5 bivalent were posted, now there are a total of 5, as (bare bones) summarized in this Table. There are differences in results between them, and all are based on relatively small numbers of participants (with heterogeneous demographics) at somewhat varying time intervals. One notable difference is that the best bivalent results for augmenting and broadening immunity vs. BQ.1.1 comes from the Suthar lab using a live virus neutralization assay, while 3 of the others used a pseudovirus assay which may be less accurate. The links to the 2 new reports are here and here. I reviewed the first 3 in yesterday’s update. Importantly, no study shows the new booster to be less effective than the original. Yet another report today from Ontario, Canada emphasized some slippage of vaccine protection vs. hospitalization in the BA.5 wave, which corroborates a few other studies. All the more reason to maintain as much protection as possible, avoid waning, and get a booster.
On the BQ.1.1 Front
New York State is the US bellwether for the BQ.1.1 with the highest per cent of cases. Thus far, there is no sign of increasing hospitalizations. It’s still early, before BQ.1.1 gets to full dominance, but it’s an encouraging sign so far. And it’s what we’re seeing in France, as reviewed yesterday.
In the Toilet
Finally, a fascinating sleuth report from Marc Johnson and colleagues in Wisconsin who used wastewater surveillance and genomics to identify a cryptic SARS-COV-2 lineage coming from a a single set of bathrooms. The astounding finding that certain individuals were persistently excreting massive copies of the virus, up to 1.6 billion genomes/L, is notable and takes the concept of superspreader to a new level.
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading. Even more thanks for subscribing and spreading the word.